Odds are we should teach probability and statistics


Among the many educational reforms that I think we ought to enact in the United States, and probably throughout the world, one of the most useful would be to begin teaching all students about probability and statistics.  These should be taught at a far younger age than that at which most people begin to learn them—those that ever do.  Most of us don’t get any exposure to the concepts until we go to university, if we do even there.  My own first real, deep exposure to probability and statistics took place when I was in medical school…and I had a significant scientific background even before then.

Why should we encourage young people to learn about such seemingly esoteric matters?  Precisely because they seem so esoteric to us.  Statistics are quoted with tremendous frequency in the popular press, in advertising, and in social media of all sorts, but the general public’s understanding of them is poor.  This appears to be an innate human weakness, not merely a failure of education.  We learn basic arithmetic with relative ease, and even the fundamentals of Newtonian physics don’t seem too unnatural when compared with most people’s intuitions about the matter.  Yet in the events of everyday life, statistics predominate.  Even so seemingly straightforward a relation as the ideal gas law (PV=nRT, relating the volume, temperature, and pressure of a gas) is the product of the statistical effects of innumerable molecules interacting with each other.  In this case, the shorthand works well enough, because the numbers involved are so vast, but in more ordinary interactions of humans with each other and with the world, we do not have numbers large enough to produce reliable, simplified formulae.  We must deal with statistics and probability.  If we do not, then we will fail to deal with reality as accurately as we could, which cannot fail to have consequences, usually bad ones.  As I often say (paraphrasing John Mellencamp) “When you fight reality, reality always wins.” Continue reading “Odds are we should teach probability and statistics”

In defense of scientism

[Originally posted on robertelessar.com on July 20th, 2017]

On this 48th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing, I want to talk a little bit about science, and how it, in principle, can apply to nearly every subject in life.

The word science is derived from Latin scientia, and earlier scire, which means “to know.”  I am, as you might have guessed, a huge fan of science, and have in the past even been a practitioner of it.  But science is not just a collection of facts, as many have said before me.  Science is an approach to information, and more generally to reality itself, a blend of rationalism and empiricism that calls on us to apply reason to the phenomena which we find in our world and to understand, with increasing completeness, the rules by which our world operates.  Personally, I think there are few—and possibly no—areas into which the scientific method cannot be applied to give us a greater understanding of, insight into, and control of, our world and our experience. Continue reading “In defense of scientism”

Diabetes For Beginners – Part 2

First published on robertelessar.com on February 23, 2012

Welcome to Part 2 of my “freshman lecture” on Diabetes.

Now we get to Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus. Interestingly enough, although this is “Type 2”, it is in fact by far the Number 1 form of Diabetes numerically, with 90 to 95% of Diabetics falling into Type 2…and that number is likely, if anything, to become larger. Continue reading “Diabetes For Beginners – Part 2”

Diabetes For Beginners – Part 1

Diabetes is an illness of which I suspect almost all adults in America are aware. I also suspect that most people know that it has something to do with high blood sugar and that having high blood sugar is a bad thing. Still, I imagine there are a fair few people out there who haven’t really got a lot more understanding of it than that—including some people who have the disease—because they haven’t really had it explained to them in terms they can follow. After all, doctors—of which I am one—don’t often take the time necessary to make sure that their patients fully understand the ins and outs of a disease process. Partly this is because, when one understands something on a very complex level, it seems like it’s going to take serious effort to explain it to someone who doesn’t have the same educational background. However, I think this is a failure of imagination and a bit of mental laziness on our part as doctors. The Nobel-Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman used to prepare “freshman lectures” about physics subjects when laypeople asked him about topics they didn’t understand. If he found that he couldn’t prepare one, he recognized that failure as an indication that the subject wasn’t well-enough understood! Continue reading “Diabetes For Beginners – Part 1”